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Voter turnout, no matter how measured, is consistently lower in midterm elections compared to presidential election years. Political scientists aren't sure why, but have some ideas.
How Midterms Do (and Do Not) Differ from Presidential Elections – Sabato's Crystal Ball
Mapping the Effects of Voter Turnout in U.S. Elections - Bloomberg
Voter turnout - Wikipedia
Voter turnout - Wikipedia
Chart: U.S. Public Supports Voter ID Laws, Early Voting
Voters Want Fewer Elections: Here's How to Do That - Sightline Institute
Why The President's Party Almost Always Has A Bad Midterm
Betting on a GOP House wave in the midterms? Look at this data first.
Youth Turnout Will Decide the Fate of the Midterm Elections
Voter Turnout and Congressional Change
Early voting numbers lag behind 2018 during week one
Oregon leads nation in voter turnout rates - OPB
Who Votes? – Sabato's Crystal Ball
Voters Stick to Pandemic-Era Habits, as Early Turnout Surges - The New York Times
The 2023 Elections Are Over. 2024 Will Be Different. - The American Prospect